Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Sitting out Nats a serious discussion

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JohnnyBlaze

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This was taken from FS other thread but for purposes of this discussion it is the best example I could come up with. These were taken from last years Nats results from Drew aka DarkTwins. Thank you Drew for providing this ;-)

Rating prior to Nats = 1859

R1 Win - 1859 vs. 1778 = +12 or 1871
R2 Loss - 1871 vs. 1862 = -16 or 1855
R3 Win - 1855 vs. 1819 = +14 or 1869
R4 Win - 1869 vs. 1728 = +10 or 1879
R5 Loss - 1879 vs. 1698 = -24 or 1855
R6 Win - 1855 vs. 1760 = +12 or 1867
R7 Win - 1867 vs. 1814 = +14 or 1881
R8 Win - 1881 vs. 1837 = +14 or 1895
R9 Win - 1895 vs. 1824 = +13 or 1908

TOP 32 Loss - 1908 vs. 1879 = -17 or 1891

Avg Rating = 1799.90

Rating after Nats = 1891

I like Drew's example because it gives his POP Rating at the beginning of Nats and then at the end of Nats. Drew went into Nats with a POP Rating of 1859. For each of his rounds notice that he was rated higher than his opponent. Drew achieved a Swiss record of 7-2 at last year's Nats (Congrats Drew) then went on to lose in the Top 32 in which btw he was also ranked higher than his opponent.

So after going 7-3 at last years Nats. Drew only gained 32 points to end up with 1891 rating. So even though this years Nats does have a higher K value it is in my estimation that if you are ranked in the Top 4 or have a 2000 or better rating it would be detrimental to participate in Nats. Look at his losses, each time he lost he lost more points on avg than a win earned him. So with this years Nats K value being even higher, each loss will be worth more than a win for the most part.

There are going to be at least a couple of players in each age division that will have an awesome Nats record that will propel them into the Top 12 for Ratings Invites but I dont see how sitting out Nats if you are ranked very high on the Ratings Invite will hurt a player aside from missing out on Scholarships at Nats. If a players goal is to reach Hawaii at the end of year and is already high on the Ratings Invite it is a wiser choice to sit out Nats. Its sad but true and this is what the ratings system does to a player who decides to sit on their ranks. A tough choice to make.

This discussion would benefit immensly from those players that are in that same position ranked in the T4 currently and/or have a rating of over 2000. Of course if you dont have that type of rating it easy to say why sit out Nats? But based on mathmatics, it is statistically difficult to believe that sitting out Nats as a very high ranked player will not get you the Ratings invite for Worlds.

When answering this question, remember what is your goal to achieve this season? Is it to go to Hawaii, is it to win scholarship money? Is it to have fun?
 
This discussion would benefit immensly from those players that are in that same position ranked in the T4 currently and/or have a rating of over 2000. Of course if you dont have that type of rating it easy to say why sit out Nats? But based on mathmatics, it is statistically difficult to believe that sitting out Nats as a very high ranked player will not get you the Ratings invite for Worlds.
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My brother is going to have to make this sort of descision. And you are right, if he sits, he wins the invite. BUT wont he win the invite anyway? If your rated that high, theres a good chance you can win the invite by top 4ing. Also, if you dohave that much of a lead on the competition, you can afford 1-2 bad losses, then drop and keep whats left. Theres too much on the line not to play.
 
I think that sitting on your ranking - while being understandable - doesn't get you any respect at all. Maybe that's not what some players are going for, but still. Sitting out Nats is just a big nono in my book. Apart from the great prizes that're on the line, wouldn't you at least want to try for glory and a Nats trophy and bragging rights?
 
A 2050 or 2000 player who has a bad event, and goes 4-3 very well could lose their invite, especially in the Seniors or Masters Division.

There is a LITTLE more points disparity in the Junior Division, but not that much.

It will be interesting. It is sad to see the Points running the event for some players at this point.

Vince
 
The main issue with this is the fact that you can easily lose 30+ points in top 32 after going 9-0. Something needs to be done about losing points in top cut matches.

It seems to me that even though the focus of the year for Americans was supposed to be US Nats, all we've been focusing on is ratings and getting to Worlds and the like.
 
1) players are supposed to lose occasionally
2) The rating system assumes that outcome is primarily influenced by skill.
3) There is no allowance for getting donked T2 and that is scary for those with a high rating.
4) A bad Nationals and both the ratings invite and the Nationals invite evaporate.
5) There are multiple invites available at USA nationals.

Sit out or play. Its ultimately your decision to make.
 
I personally wouldnt mind sitting out if I had a rating of 2000 or higher, I would go enjoy the rest of Origins since the convention has a lot of cool stuff to offer. It would bother me that I dont have to play however the prospect of getting 2 days at Origins to roam is way too appealing if I had that choice. I do think some areas in the world that they dont have a nice gaming convention with their Nats. So there I dont know what to say.
JMO,
Drew
 
If I was really high I'd show up late, play a few bad players, and drop. I'd use a really consistent deck to guard against a donk.
 
ShawofMordor said:
If I was really high I'd show up late, play a few bad players, and drop. I'd use a really consistent deck to guard against a donk.
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Well tell me that deck?
We all had lost 1 game at our Nationals due to a bad start.
And I can tell you it did hurt all of our rankings very much. (except mine LOL)

Loosing 24 points because you start with 1 castform 5 nrg and windstorm, while playing 14 basics, 4 transceiver and 3 mentor is NO FUN.
 
If you have a ranking that you feel certain will get you into Worlds, why risk it at Nationals?

Unless you're in it for the scholarship money, why risk it? The big prize is Worlds. Don't lose sight of that.
 
meganium45 said:
The Gorn FTW!

All those talking about "honor" and the like must be ranked 13-30!

Vince
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Wow, nice, bashing FTW! ><

I was actually ranked 6th in Europe before our Nats with 2007 points, and lost a chance at the ranking invite. But who I was really refering to was the No. 1 ranked player WORLDWIDE who played our Nationals and WON because he had the guts to earn respect from all around the world even though he would've had the rankings invite 100% if he didn't play.
 
I know exactly what you are feeling. Take for example my son's regional record. He started at 1897.54 and ended up at 1922.44, gaining only 24.9 points. He went 6-2 for the tourney BUT the 2 losses came to players that had lower ratings than him. In those 2 losses he lost 51.12 points. WOW!!!OUCH!!! The K-value fro regionals is 40K, I think. Can you imagine the points you would lose at a 44K value event. I think the best position to be in is mid 1850 range if you are a good player and go up against good players and try to gouge up their points. It's going a tough decision for those high ranked players to make.
 
Hey, "honor" is what this is all about. You play to win the game...not sit out while everyone else plays (and wins/loses)!

If nats goes astray, great. If nats goes fine, great. All I know is that the people who are telling me to sit are the same people who told me I was insane to play in battle roads with a 2020.03 rating. Of course the lot all had intelligent arguments for why, but no quantity of intelligent arguments can counter the simple fact that if you never take a reasonable, calculated risk, you'll never get anywhere. I may not even complete the whole tournament (ie the "parachute" strategy you mentioned in an earlier post, Vince), but I will at least give it a go...

You guys will feel better, and FAR more importantly, I'll feel better about myself if I play, at bare minimum, one round.
 
I have 2 more battle roads.
Right now, I am definitely too low to sit out nats.
If I win both, I could be high enough that I still get an invite with a 6-3.
If I fall in the middle, I'm not sure what I'll do.
Herm Edwards Plays to Win The Game, but he'll still have the QB kneel down to end the game. :wink:
 
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