Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Skipping Nationals vs. Ranking

Professor Elm

Professor Elm

Active Member
Honestly, I could afford to go to nationals if I wanted to, BUT I really want the chance to play in the World Championship this year, so I am opting to skip nationals and keep my ranking frozen at 1853. I realize this could be a risk for better or for worse, but I've always dreamed of playing as a competitior at Worlds and every year I'm just shy of getting an invite.

My question is: How much do you think Nationals will affect the current Top 25 standings. I am 18 right now, which is a good spot to be in I think, but after Nats. I fear I will be right on the borderline or just shy of making it into worlds.

I checked last years rankings, and anybody with an 1850+ ranking got an invite. Obviously, this year Nats is less K Value. SO, do u think Nationals will have a bigger or smaller impact on the current Top 25?
 
I think you need to be at/or around 1860+ to get in. I think 1850 is going to be the cut off but I expect if you want to be in you should want to be at 1870 or so. 1850 is cutting it really close.

Drew
 
I wouldn't say it's very wise to skip Nationals completely. If you're that worried about your rating, keep playing until you lose, then drop.
 
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hitmonchan93 said:
I wouldn't say it's very wise to skip Nationals completely. If you're that worried about your rating, keep playing until you lose, then drop.
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Yeah, I just don't want to spend the money to go to nats. though
I think I'm just gonna skip it and see what happens.
 
I am in the minority opinion here, but I believe that the cutoff is going to be very close to last year, even with the Top 16 Nats screw up last year. I think you're going to get an invite.
 
Not playing your own Nationals to protect your rating, when the trip you receive is not a "paid trip", just an invite to play is a choice I would find tough to make.

It is that type of choice that makes me wish Nationals had a higher K value. With a higher K value, the choice is weighted towards playing, and not sitting it out.

Avoiding playing in the event with the best competition of the year, because you have racked up points in events against lesser competition (not a criticism of your area, any competition has to be considered lesser competition than US Nats), really seems to be, well, against the idea of testing yourself to see if you are the best.

I know the pressure to play in Worlds is huge, but as I tell my sons, how many people get the opportunity to be declared National Champion at anything? If you are the 18th ranked person in the US, and assuming we cut to a top 32, you should have a shot at the 2nd day, where anything can happen.

Get to the top 4...you are paid to go to San Diego.

Good luck with your decision. If it is financial, then so be it. If it is strategic...then I would hate to have my season dependant on the skills of so many other people. There are a lot of people in "striking distance" of your rating. It will be interesting.

Vince
 
i say if you want to have fun then go to natz. unless you don't want to spend any money, then i would at least try, i'm 1889 right now, and i'm still playing in natz. just because i love playing the game.
 
Yeah, if I were you I wouldn't risk it. It would be terribly sad if you just missed the cutoff by 3 points or so. If you do a 3-1 or 4-1 drop at nats (or even a 10-1, etc.) you can still play play in side events. I hope you get your trip/invite:thumb:
 
meganium45 said:
Not playing your own Nationals to protect your rating, when the trip you receive is not a "paid trip", just an invite to play is a choice I would find tough to make.

It is that type of choice that makes me wish Nationals had a higher K value. With a higher K value, the choice is weighted towards playing, and not sitting it out.

Avoiding playing in the event with the best competition of the year, because you have racked up points in events against lesser competition (not a criticism of your area, any competition has to be considered lesser competition than US Nats), really seems to be, well, against the idea of testing yourself to see if you are the best.

I know the pressure to play in Worlds is huge, but as I tell my sons, how many people get the opportunity to be declared National Champion at anything? If you are the 18th ranked person in the US, and assuming we cut to a top 32, you should have a shot at the 2nd day, where anything can happen.

Get to the top 4...you are paid to go to San Diego.

Good luck with your decision. If it is financial, then so be it. If it is strategic...then I would hate to have my season dependant on the skills of so many other people. There are a lot of people in "striking distance" of your rating. It will be interesting.

Vince
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My sentiments exactly!Great post Vince.

How can you skip Nationals?! To play at worlds, yeah, I get it. But earn your way there by teeing it up against the best in the country, not by being a big fish in a little pond. If your not willing to lay it out there and see what happens against the country's best you sir are lacking some serious heart.
But hey, what do I know.

I've been close to winning Nats. a couple times and there isn't a tournament
I want to win more- period!
 
Scizor said:
I am in the minority opinion here, but I believe that the cutoff is going to be very close to last year, even with the Top 16 Nats screw up last year. I think you're going to get an invite.
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I am kind of wondering if I agree or disagree with his. I am on the fence. Before Nationals 30th was 1838, this year 30th before Nationals is 1832. It is only a six point difference. I have a feeling it might be a bit higher than last year. I mean 6 points isn't a lot but last year 1832 before Nationals was 36th and 6 spots is a big thing. I think that 1865 or higher is where you want to be 100% sure.

the_sniper said:
My sentiments exactly!Great post Vince.

How can you skip Nationals?! To play at worlds, yeah, I get it. But earn your way there by teeing it up against the best in the country, not by being a big fish in a little pond. If your not willing to lay it out there and see what happens against the country's best you sir are lacking some serious heart.
But hey, what do I know.

I've been close to winning Nats. a couple times and there isn't a tournament
I want to win more- period!
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I would agree, but I think if you go 5-0 drop and make it, there is a chance that nobody knows what you were playing and if it is a good deck you can choose to reuse it at Worlds and it might still have some type of surprise factor. I am not sure what I would do. I know that I should of dropped both the last two years, but it manage both times to work themselves out (Grinder in 07 and Nats Error in 08). I have been really lucky, so it really matters what you feel is the right choice for you. Most players won't drop, but nobody except you can determine what you should do, they can only give you advice, which is really all you can ask for.

Drew
 
I don't personally care where the cutoff is as it is Top 8 Nats or bust for me, but I don't think I could ever bring myself to drop. If you're 5-0, you have to be doing something right. Why wouldn't you continue? For an unpaid Worlds invite? I wouldn't even do that if I were in position this year and I even live less than an hour from where Worlds is being held! 5-0 drop and leave wondering what could have been if you had continued playing. And honestly, if you can't do well when you're 5-0 at Nats, I don't know what makes anyone think they could do better at Worlds.
 
Who cares about worlds anyway? The true test of skill is the US Nationals.

I say that anyone who sits out of this tourney is a wuss and should probably stick to playing at the local league. :tongue: :wink: Take a little risk, have fun, don't wimp out!
 
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With an 1850 ish rating a first round loss at nationals could end your chances of an invite to worlds. A higher K value makes it worse not better Vince. Worse because there will be grinches at Nationals: tallented players with ratings that significantly under-represent those players skill.

Ignoring all other factors the risk-reward ratio still makes sitting out the right choice if you have that choice. Of course the risk-reward ratio was this way for nearly all of the season for those that have a decent rating. Yet in order to get a high rating you had to put those points on the line. Tricky.

But if you do sit out then you miss out on the fun, and there is the risk that 1850 might not be enough.
 
Um, is that really a question?

This board is about PG and that word, especially in the context you used it, is properly banned.

FWIW...thanks for the agreement on the Nats post.

Nopoke, I would agree except this player is from Texas, and he is just getting an invite to play at worlds, not a trip, hotel and the rest.

US Nats continues to be the biggest and hardest event on the planet.

Proof? We have a repeat champion of Worlds...we do not have one of US Nats. Weak proof, but proof.

Also, US Nats is the one event that the US "Great One" has never captured. (By Great One here I mean Ness, not Curran H., who is also a "Great One" in the Pokemon World)

Vince
 
meganium45 said:
Um, is that really a question?

This board is about PG and that word, especially in the context you used it, is properly banned.

FWIW...thanks for the agreement on the Nats post.

Nopoke, I would agree except this player is from Texas, and he is just getting an invite to play at worlds, not a trip, hotel and the rest.

US Nats continues to be the biggest and hardest event on the planet.

Proof? We have a repeat champion of Worlds...we do not have one of US Nats. Weak proof, but proof.

Also, US Nats is the one event that the US "Great One" has never captured. (By Great One here I mean Ness, not Curran H., who is also a "Great One" in the Pokemon World)

Vince
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Tom D. and Seena IMO have come the closest. Tom D. might be the best Nationals player ever as he always seems to make the cut and go far in it. :thumb:

Drew
 
meganium45 said:
US Nats continues to be the biggest and hardest event on the planet.

Proof? We have a repeat champion of Worlds...we do not have one of US Nats. Weak proof, but proof.
Click to expand...

Isn't that to some extent just due to the size of the event?

World Series of Poker had a few repeat winners until the explosion in 2003. Now the field is simply so large and filled with so many types of player (good and bad), that skill alone does not win you the event -- now the stars need to align for you as well. At certain points you are forced to rely on luck.

I don't see Pokemon as being much different. For most winners in these large events, virtually everything needs to go perfect. Skill can make up a lot of it at the table, but the stuff outside of your control needs to tip your direction as well. Drawing an auto-loss matchup, terrible starts, key cards prized -- all things that you can't afford to have occur more than once or twice over the course of the tournament. The issue is exacerbated at something as large as Nationals because each round is another opportunity for something to go wrong.

When judging skill in poker I'm not necessarily interested in who is winning, but who is consistently doing very well. In Pokemon, even I can manage to win one, but only the best make top cut in 80% of their events. This is what the rating system is designed to recognize and reward. I'm glad to have both systems -- ratings reward the consistent players, Nationals rewards those that survive the event (which is still an impressive feat).
 
Well, I know I'm offering totally contradictory advice here, but if you feel you can sit on your ranking (which in itself is still a big risk) and nab an invite to Worlds, I would do it. Nationals, yeah it's nice, but consider that Nationals you can get into any year so long as you drive yourself up; with Worlds, it is by far much more exclusive. Worlds in theory (not necessary in application) should have even tougher competition than Nationals, as you're talking about playing the best players in all participating countries, rather than just top U.S. players and whatever they may think of themselves as by being "the best". So yeah, I know if I ever had that high of a ranking, I would sit on it in a heartbeat and take the risk.
 
meganium45 said:
Not playing your own Nationals to protect your rating, when the trip you receive is not a "paid trip", just an invite to play is a choice I would find tough to make.

It is that type of choice that makes me wish Nationals had a higher K value. With a higher K value, the choice is weighted towards playing, and not sitting it out.

Avoiding playing in the event with the best competition of the year, because you have racked up points in events against lesser competition (not a criticism of your area, any competition has to be considered lesser competition than US Nats), really seems to be, well, against the idea of testing yourself to see if you are the best.

I know the pressure to play in Worlds is huge, but as I tell my sons, how many people get the opportunity to be declared National Champion at anything? If you are the 18th ranked person in the US, and assuming we cut to a top 32, you should have a shot at the 2nd day, where anything can happen.

Get to the top 4...you are paid to go to San Diego.

Good luck with your decision. If it is financial, then so be it. If it is strategic...then I would hate to have my season dependant on the skills of so many other people. There are a lot of people in "striking distance" of your rating. It will be interesting.

Vince
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Trust me, I would love to play in nationals, but I would love to play in worlds even more. I don't need nationals to know that i am one of the top players in the nation. It may sound conceited but I know Im good.
My only thing is, I don't wanna pay my way to 2 events. True, I could earn an invite and trip to worlds through nationals. BUT at the same time, with the way the metagame is looking, it's all abou matchups, and if I get a bunch of bad matchups I just shot myself in the foot. Or even if I do well, if Im not in top 4 I dont get the trip paid for so i woud end up paying my way anyway. It just seems like the odds are against me, so to conserve money i just won't go, And if I don't get an invite because of that decision, so be it.
 
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