A reprint in an upcoming set will affect its rotation status. A reprint in a collection, boxed set, or league promo would not. That said, from the development strategy we're seeing from Japan right now, I would be surprised if we didn't get a Catcher reprint in the next core set. It may be an Ace Spec, however. If it is, we'll see another pokemon with a lure Ability within the next 2 or 3 Japanese sets.
From a marketing perspective, if Pokemon wants to focus on the North American market by retaking the Junior demographic like in Japan, Catcher needs to be a promo. If they don't care, they should completely change their accessibility strategy and go back to packs-only, raising the secondary market prices and focusing only on Masters. Because the Japanese market strategy is being enforced on TPCi right now, and they're really skirting the edge of it (I still say their product manager is going to be wearing a barrel by next year and major changes will come again). I'd like to see them go towards the Japanese model and try to attract more players.
I think the best analogy for going to the packs-only, high price model is Yugioh, and that failed them. The other analogy I'd use is Games Workshop, and they're also bombing horribly. I can't remember the last time they turned a quarterly profit; I haven't been following them in the last couple of years, but it sure doesn't LOOK like they turned it around, what with stores closing, etc.
We're in a depression, and Pokemon is an expense parents are going to cut quickly. It's not going to affect Masters players that considerably either way, but the number of Juniors and Seniors in the game and buying packs - if maybe in smaller quantities each - will really go up.
