Posting to let you guys know I'm here. Please don't start jumping on me for inactivity.... I'm not feeling very well at the moment and am going to bed. I'll try and read over the game and make a post tomorrow. I'll be fairly more active after December 16th, once my finals are over. Until then, I'll post as I'm able to.
Regular post about regular problems.
I skimmed over the game, and while there isn't any one thing in particular I wanted to single out, there are a few general observations I made.
1. HumanDestroyer seems a over eager on the scum hunting. I don't believe we can base TOO much off of this yet, since townies commonly do this at the start of the game. However, it's something to consider for later.
2. Crimsonsky, Vablakes, and StrongRhino are all playing relatively poorly. Yes, there's good odds that they're just new and townie, as is often the case. But, we all know that new players can be wolves (remember PM from a few games ago?), and it can be dangerous to simply dismiss them because of poor early play and just assume that they're townies. Even if they're not wolves, there is also the possibility of masons or indy players. The bottom line is, I don't want to assume they're townie because they're new, and playing badly. I also don't think that there is a strong enough case against any one of them yet to lynch them. I would rather wait and see if something more interesting develops, than lynch a new player on poor play.
3. Speech impediments are almost always faked by townies or indy players. Scum sometimes fake them, but usually they wish to avoid drawing attention to them selves. I would not base too much off of this yet.
I do not like this post very much. First, he says we could go after HD for scum hunting too much, then he says we shouldn't base too much off this. Next, he says they are playing poorly. He doesn't say why, but they just are. Notice how he said it is also likely that they are just new townie. Lastly he says Speech impediments are almost always faked, but we cannot really do much about it because we don't know.
My problem with this post is that DP doesn't take a stance in any of his points and he does not place a vote.
Maybe you should post when you are more awake, yes? I was tired and posted badly is not a valid excuse, since it would be VERY easy for a scum player to cover up a mistake in wording like this.
Again, this really isn't a valid excuse. If I'm tired, I'll make a post saying "hey guys, I'll post later", and then post when I can think straight. Flip flopping your position so quickly looks very bad on you. However, I think it's even worse that the best defense you could come up with was that you missworded things because you were tired. I'm sorry, but that's not good enough for me.
Vote: Vablakes
Votes on Vablakes were very popular at this time. He tried to do a gambit, but failed, so I can understand this vote.
Excuse me, but I the past few games I've either been stuck with a godawful situation, or night killed before I had a chance to do anything.
I'm not sure what else you want me to post right now. Thus far, I've said what I think is worth being said. There is nothing more which I wish to comment on at the moment. Just because I'm not posting everything that pops into my head, doesn't mean I'm not making any conclusions after looking over the thread. Most of the time, I prefer to wait a while to post those conclusions until there is more evidence to support them.
As I've already stated, (Perhaps Pikamaster would be kind enough to pause the game for a few days during these weeks, since I know many others are in the same situation) I have final papers, end of the semester homework, and finals to deal with from now until the 15th. I'll try to be active as possible, but I'm not going to be a super active poster during this time, or have too much time for the game otherwise. I hate having to make an excuse, but the game started at a relatively poor time, and academics always must come before a game.
The top few sentences is an over reaction to a post that probably was better left unsaid. 1st paragraph is what bothers me. He should not hold any reads back if he was town. Saying "I'll post more when I see more evidence" is like saying "I'll wait til everyone else decides they their best lynch choice then I'll post".
I already stated what I thought Scorri, and what I thought of crimsonsky. I do not believe there is too much to go on for either one of them as of now.
I already stated my opinions of both these players. I'll probably try again later tonight for a more comprehensive look at the game. In all honesty, I just haven't had time to do a thorough read through, and don't want to start giving half formed opinions. I have a few things that I MUST get done today, but later either today, or tomorrow I should have time to give a more detailed opinion of what's going on.
Basically he says he cannot come to post opinions because he has not read through.
Could someone provide a brief summery of what's been going on? I just don't have time right now to keep up with the thread at the rate it's moving. I'm mostly interested in what the case against vegetalian is.
I have asked for this before, but it is better to just read the entire thing.
Good god.... I've never seen so many giant walls of text. Sometimes, less is more?
Doubt full I'll be able to catch up much at this point. However, I do feel that Vablakes has cleared him self for now, and that there are better lynching options.
Unvote: Vablakes
No, less isn't more. You didn't directly say less fluff is more, you said less is more. In this case, I prefer more. It helps give us better clues and leads and posting more is better in general. What did you mean by Vablakes is cleared?
I will be making my vote tomorrow, IF I feel that I have enough information to make it. If I have time to actually read everything (which is starting to look rather doubtful) and can make a decision based off of what I saw, then I will vote. However, if I do not, I will not simply bandwagon vote and will decline to cast a vote for the day.
I strongly recommend that new players do the same. If you feel that you can't keep up with the game at some point or another do NOT feel pressured to cast a quick vote in order to look active. This is what the wolves want. Just a few bandwagon votes cast because you didn't have time to look over the game (or are plain old lazy) and actually REALLY made sure you understood what was going on make it nearly impossible to locate the wolves, and get players who should have other wised lived, lynched. This is a large part of why the town lost the last game so badly. I would rather not see this happen again.
There are a lot of big posts going on, and big posts (while not always) can be a wolf tacit to pressure townies. If a townie responds with a large post, soon you have 2 (or more) players making very large posts, which adds a lot of confusion and pressures the outsiders to the argument to follow them, otherwise they often get lost in the debate. I'm not saying that any of the players making a big post IS a wolf, however, I think it would be wise to keep an eye on anyone consistently making excessively large posts.
No, you should not bandwagon vote. I agree with this, but you should not be so resilient to with hold your vote. Only wolves have to be so careful about there votes.
Next paragraph, he tries to tell the inactives (indirectly) to with hold their votes, which makes his unwillingness to vote blend in.
Third paragraph I do not understand. This logic is awful. Big posts DO help the town. They are used to scum-hunt, give reads, make important decisions/points, ect. If the posts contain a lot of fluff, sure question them, but just saying big posts in general is a wolf tactic is just ridiculous.
After skimming over the last 8 pages or so, here's my thoughts on where we currently stand.
It doesn't matter if he is or isn't who he says to be. It's very possible that he really is Gareth, since it can be rather risky to claim someone else from your universe considering that someone else might have it and claim it for them selves. If that happens, you're in a pretty bad situation. I believe that he probably is Gareth. HOWEVER, I will stress that no significance should be put into who a character is. We can not just assume that a character is town, wolf, or otherwise simply based on WHO they are as a character from some universe. Yes, there may be a few obvious ones (e.g. if there were a Hades would probably be wolf), but those people would likely have another claim anyway from another universe so that there was little risk in someone having the actual character. In other words, the characters at the extreme ends of the good/bad spectrum are probably pretty solid guesses, but those players will have more exotic claims ready to go. The characters in the mid ground can swing either way, and we can NOT base anything off their roles by who they are.
Lazy persons version: Don't judge anything by name claims alone.
See above.
Here's the post everyone is currently making a big fuss over. I'm not going to pretend that Vablakes is playing well by any means, however, I do not have a scum vibe from this post. To me, this looks like a new player pointing out some thoughts (in his defense, Townies DO get lynched), and then certain players jumping on him and trying to corner and pin him for a few phrases that are later taken out of context. I decided to break the post down, and look at the different parts of it.
My comments in bold.
I would like to look at another one of Vablakes posts, where he is responding to an attack by vegitalian.
I don't see much wrong with his writing tone. He sounds like a new player who has some good observations, but still is making rookie mistakes. Remember when Diaz first played? He played much the same way. I do not think that his play style is any grounds to lynch him yet.
I'm also not convinced on the coaching thing. He looks like a legitimate new player who has done studying and has a good idea of what the game is about, but is still making mistakes.
I do agree with you though that if Vablakes does actually flip scum, that we should thoroughly look at the posts made against vegitalian (and how people interacted with Vablakes) and see if we can find other wolves. However, I do think he's going to flip town. If he flips town, I think it would be wise to look at the key arguments against Vablakes, and see if we can find any wolves there, since I'm quite sure there's at least a few by now that have hopped on his bandwagon.
As for my vote, I retracted my vote for Vablakes a while ago. I still do not think that he is the best lynch, as we'll likely only be lynching a townie that got caught in a bad position. I'm not so fond of simply dropping vegitalian off the radar though. Especially considering how he is currently attacking Vablakes. I don't think he's cleared him self simply by posting a name reveal, and I don't think we should let him go so quickly.
Vote: vegitalian
This was a decent post by DarthPika. I don't really like that he only skimmed over this, but it is a fine post.
@ prohawk
I've been very busy, and had to do a fairly quick analysis of the thread. I based my conclusion of what I saw while looking over it fairly quickly, so it's possible I missed some of the finer points. I didn't notice a change in writing style, but that's not to say it isn't there. Could you, or someone please show the posts that demonstrate this?
Asking for a post he missed.
I have a few thoughts on the update and on some of the things you brought up. However, I'm quite sick at the moment, so I'll post them in the morning when my head hopefully isn't so fuzzy.
Also, I'm done with finals, so I should be able to spend more time on the game now.
Another post about not being able to post.
The vegitalian being silenced is a bit of a WIFOM situation, since he was attacking you the other day. Therefore, it's possible he was roleblocked by someone who wishes to frame you. OR, you (or a possible partner, if one exists) knowing that everyone would think that it's someone trying to frame you, could have blocked him since either way, you won't take the blame for it. While this is something I think is worth consideration, since I don't want to clear him of being the one to do it, I don't think we can pass any sort of judgement on him either, since it's too easy for it to go either way.
No particular thoughts on KirbyKing, other than perhaps low lying players were being targeted in hopes of hitting a power role that was trying to lie under the radar, either with good or bad intentions.
Jellyfisher is dead, look at the front page. It seems we have someone/something that is able to keep role reveal upon death. I'm not sure we can draw any conclusions from the alignment of the killer yet.
My thoughts on why Kayle was targeted: He wasn't going to receive priest protection. You, Vegi, and perhaps Diaz were fairly high profile the other day, and I would suspect draw night attention to your selves. Kayle was probably the "safe" kill. There may be other reasons, but that's my best guess for now.
I agree, Vablakes is suspicious. However, I find you a bit overeager to put the spotlight back on him so quickly, especially after the night events seem to be favorable for you. I won't draw any conclusions yet, since it's possible you just got caught in less than ideal situation, and someone is trying to use it against you to make you look bad. However, I will be keeping you on my radar.
As I said in my above post, I really could go either way because of the WIOFM situation which it creates. You just demonstrated that the people Vegi was suspicious of COULD block him, because it would be seemingly stupid for them to block the guy who was suspicious of them, because it would draw attention to them. However, because it's a "stupid" move, they obviously wouldn't do it, so they actually can do it if they want. It can go either way, and there's no way to tell.
Excellent find Diaz! I'm not sure if we can assume that ALL pokemon have the same win condition, but I would be willing to bet that at the very least, the legendaries probably do. Even then, it's possible that only the "unfriendly" pokemon (Mewtwo, Giratina, Gengar, etc...) I'm also not sure they quite belong as an independant, as much as a 3rd party which functions as it's own "town". I would like to avoid drawing too many conclusions about pokemon though before we see more of them.
Not really drawing a conclusion on Pokemon.
I would assume people are going after you and not pp101, because you are currently under suspicion, and people are looking back over your posts. Most people probably forgot pp101 said that, because they're busying trying to determine what we should do with you.
I don't have time to respond in full to your post now, but you do bring up some valid points, which I was already considering.
Not really having time to respond.
Is there any particular reason why scorri is CONSTANTLY referring to scorri's self in third person?
Doesn't understand the posting restriction.
Fair enough. I feel quite sorry for you.
Understanding the restriction.
I think that wolves should still be high priority, however, with that being said it's probably in the wolves best interest to get Pokemon and Enforcers lynched during the day, so there's a decent chance that they'll wind up siding with the town a decent amount of the time. I think Indies should as always be regarded with caution, though they vary in how dangerous they actually are. I still am going to refrain from making any judgement on the pokemon faction, as we only have one dead pokemon (and a known evil one at that) which we are basing it off of. I would rather wait until we see more of the to judge their threat level to the town.
Not really sure what to think of the Enforcers yet.... Are they like their own separate wolf group? Are they the ones responsible for Jellys death? It seems they have some rather strange powers as well, like bringing non enforcers back from the dead. So, perhaps Enforcers win is not dependent on the ration of enforcers/everyone else left? If not, then what could it be? Any ideas?
Still not making any decision on Pokemon.
I believe you misunderstood what I was saying. I never said it's not a good idea to lynch Vablakes. I was only saying that I wish to not jump to the conclusion that ALL pokemon are anti town, or that they all have the same win condition based only ONE dead pokemon. Drawing conclusions from one data point is never wise, and can lead to dead townies if you make the wrong assumptions.
Just reiterating a point.
Oh, I agree. I'm all for lynching Vablakes. I was just trying to caution the town before we got on an out of control KILL ALL THE POKEMON bandwagon, which would cause much confusion, and allow the wolves to control the town as they pleased while the town was distracted.
Post #869 basically states exactly what I think of what should be done considering the pokemon group, and how we should currently view them.
Trying to caution us a town to not step out. Now that I look at it, you just used part of Cabd's gambit. You said "the town". Meaning that you are implying that you are separate from the town.
Forgot to do this in my last post:
Vote: Vablakes
Don't everyone vote for him TOO fast, since we don't want to end the day earlier than needed.
That is kinda funny. Don't vote too fast so we don't end the day, but I am going to vote him. Shouldn't you trust yourself not to hammer?
And you, The King, are making it look like your trying to place greater importance on hunting down pokemon, rather than wolves. This is rather scummy behavior, is it not? I agree, Vablakes is looking bad right now, and should be lynched today (unless something better turns up, which is unlikely), BUT, we can't just ignore the wolves. If we ignore the wolves, we will be doomed.
FoS: TheKing - For implying pokemon hunting/killing is more important than scum hunting.
Not much to say here except he is challenging theking.
I have my own methods of scum hunting. Just because I'm not actively going around pinning people down trying to find out who's a wolf and who's not doesn't mean that I'm not looking for scum. I'm just a bit quieter about it is all. I much prefer to sit back and observe, and then draw conclusions from those observations when I think I see something of interest. As of now, I don't see much to go off of as far as scum reads on anyone yet. Right now, it's very dangerous to accuse someone of being scum, because there's not much evidence and it's easy to accidentally get a townie lynched.
My vote is on Vablakes because he is a Pokemon. I do not know if we can have a pokemon-wolf, but I think that is improbable. However, we do not currently have any leads on actual wolves, so my vote will stick with Vablakes until we have one. I already said I would change my vote should something more interesting come up. I'll be looking over the thread to see if there actually IS something more interesting.
Do I need to explain my self farther?
I do not like this posts. He says his way of scum hunting is sitting back and waiting for evidence, which is basically waiting for others to do the hard work and then jump in for the kill. Why don't you ever post your observations? Isn't it good for the town to know?
Being the horrible human being that I am, I'm ignoring the valid points you make, and just posting to counter your argument.
I'm not quite sure what to think of the DragonClyne situation yet, but it has my interest. I think looking over his old posts would be worth while.
Still so unsure. This seems to happen to DP a lot.
Not to my knowledge have the wolves ever had any additional night killing power. If they do, then they'll likely have to skip a night or something. I think it's more likely that it was some other group who did the killing.
This is interesting. DP should most likely expect a vig before anything, but the first thing he expects is another group. He might be implying he knows something more.
Not to speak for Prohawk, but it seems that since he is so strongly defending the other factions, it seems he IS one of those factions.
I sense a bit of sarcasm here.
I think you misread my post, and his post. Neither one of us was trying to infer that Prohawk is not a townie. We were talking about DC727. I'm not trying to say Prohawk is or isn't a townie, I don't know what he is. That being said, I do think you should change your vote because you clearly misunderstood the intent of those posts.
Eclipse, interesting points you brought up about the king. I'll go back over his other posts and see how they look now that we have some hindsight to work with.
Has anyone else noticed that Vablakes has COMPLETELY stopped posting as of late?
Notice that it isn't a big defense, but there is a slight push to unvote Prohawk, who is a wolf.
Sorry for the lack of posting, have been distracted with Christmas/family activities (I'm only get to be home for like a week before I go back to school). I'll try to catch up and post tomorrow, since we've had some rather interesting developments. Gut feeling right now, Waynegg isn't a wolf. Not sure if he's town, but I'm not getting a scum vibe from him at the moment.
Prod avoiding post.
So, here's my thoughts on the situation. I'll give your eyes a break, and not quote a million different posts that make it hard to follow, but try to provide a summery of what I've noticed.
While I do not necessarily agree with how he uses it, this IS Wayneggs normal play style. His town meta is very aggressive scum hunting, and he often attacks many different people, trying to get a wolf to slip up either in defense or when launching a counter attack to try to make him look bad. Now, I'm not saying that the fact that he's done this in the past should clear him of being scum, but I do think it's worth consideration that this is not out of the norm for him.
As for is he scum or not. Things I noticed while reading over the thread:
I've noticed a lot of post dicing (which is why I decided to go for a summery rather than attempt to cut up and accurately present large posts my self), with lots of clever reinterpreting/rearaning of those posts to make Waynegg look bad. He's also guilt of it, but it seemed to me at least, to be a lesser extent.
Waynegg is a smart player. Overly aggressive play is not a characteristic of a smart wolf, since it draws attention to ones self. Furthermore, overly aggressive play tends to get the town (or anyone else who might want to try and take advantage of the situation) against you, because it has the tendency to make you look scummy if you attack the wrong people. I do not see Waynegg playing like this if he were scum. He might not be town, but I do not think that he's scum based on what we should expect of him if he IS scum.
I know a lot of you guys like to quote a million different things, and try to argue various things from them showing how this person is or isn't scum. That can work great. However, I sometimes prefer to take a step back, and think about the overall logic of the situation. You can twist around what someone says to mean pretty much whatever you want. Townies often die like this. However, the actual logic of WHY the player is playing like they are is something that's often overlooked. I've caught several wolves like this in the past, just because I thought to my self "why is X player acting like this, how would they act if they were a wolf? How would they act if they are town? Which one does logic say they are behaving like, based on everything I know about X player?
I do not think waynegg is the correct lynch for the day. I AM highly interested, however, in this lovely summery of people who jumped on the vote early on. I'm not very sold on DC725 being scum. SMP88 also has been neutral/town for me. I would take a guess that a townie (DC725) started attacking waynegg, and then at somewhere mid way on once it had drawn enough support to be safe (and there were enough posts to twist around to the point that no one knew who said what) a wolf hopped on. I would be willing to bet that at this point there are at least 2 wolves who have either voted for waynegg, or are actively attacking him.
The best part about this: Even if waynegg flips wolf, there are probably STILL at least 1-2 wolves who have either voted for him, or are actively attacking him. Though, they probably joined in the debate later on, and will be not nearly as aggressive in their attacks.
I don't think we should lynch him, but it seems to be a pretty win/win situation no matter what the outcome. It will give us good information no matter what he flips as.
As for my vote, JewlQuest hopped on right about when I would expect a wolf to venture in, especially considering the rather weak reasoning of passively agreeing with what has already been said by the initial attackers. I'm not sold on my vote, since this is a bit of a hit or miss method of scum hunting, however, I think it's currently our best option.
Unvote:Vablakes
Vote: JewlQuest
Here's wayneggs claim of what he was doing, as well as the list of the first several people who voted for him. We may have to dig a little deeper to find a wolf and look at the later voters, but I guarantee they're there, regardless of wayneggs alignment.
Funny how AGAIN DP is being hesitant. He says Waynegg's playstyle is normal, but doesn't clear him from being scum. He clearly doesn't want to make any accusations.
Really? Is that why you're voting for him? This is the first time you've posted in heaven only knows how long, and you're throwing that out as a reason to cast a vote for someone?
FoS: Your_Face
He doesn't like his reasoning for voting for Waynegg, but only FoS him. Don't want to step out and switch your vote?
Missed this gem of a post earlier on. He's trying to say he's scummy for using the SAME gambit as him earlier on? Why shouldn't he give it a try, especially since he seemed to pull it off? You don't need to explain WHY he's suspicious? And you top it off by saying you can't post again, and conveniently hurry off? Some people may have forgotten that YOU were in the hot seat earlier, but I have not. I think it's unlikely that we'll figure out who the wolves are in the mess of voters who attacked waynegg with so little time, but you just earned your self back my vote.
Vablakes is a pokemon, therefore independent. Therefore, it is in our best interest to kill him. Especially after he dropped off the face of the earth while the accusations against him died down, and now he tries to slip in a quick scummy vote against someone with absolutely horrible reasoning. I suggest we vote Vablakes, and not waynegg. I believe waynegg to not be scum. Vablakes on the other hand, is playing like scum. At least waynegg explained him self.
Unvote: Jewl_Quest
Vote: Vablakes
In this post, DP is a hypocrite. He talks about how Vablakes "conveniently hurried off", when he did that several times this game. He also mentioned it is our "best interest" to kill him because he is an independent. DP, aren't you the one that said we cannot judge peoples win conditions based off one thing happening? Also, shouldn't we be more interested in hunting wolves? This is also a part of Cabd's guide. The section that says "let's focus on the indies".
We can seer waynegg if needed. I do not believe he would play so aggressively if he was scum. It defies all logic. Even if he was scum and pulled this off, the amount of attention it would draw from the night roles alone would make it borderline suicide to attempt something like this. What does it gain him in the end if he's scum? Do scum players really want half the town thinking that they're scum? He's a smart player, and smart players just don't do something that stupid if they're scum.
This post is basically WIFOM. A smart player can do stupid things at times. Just like a stupid player can do smart things at times.
I'm starting to think that pokemonrocks777 and Your_Face haven't even read the thread, and are simply hopping on who currently has the most votes. I'm not sure weather to blame in on inexperience, laziness, or trying to slip in a vote unnoticed at this point. Neither one of you provided ANY reason for why you are voting waynegg.
FoS: Your_Face, pokemonrocks777
You still don't want to go voting for inactives. Just FoSing them.
For these posts I have not really liked DP. I have not seen much scum hunting and he is very hesitant about his voting. Also the points I had already made above.
I will work on my full ISO over the weekend, but I have a project, so it might be a while.
