Werewolf XVIII: Dimensional Clash: Wolves/Outlaws Win!

[xxumbreonxx]

They.... They killed my father. I must get revenge lol! xD

But seriously. Last night was crazy.... And now for sure the wolves have the lead in this game. All of these flips have made me even more confused... but I would like to ask this: DarthPika, even though it wasn't the best request of Jpulice, why didn't you role reveal? Since Jpulice HAS flipped, and we know for sure that he's pro-town, his method seems to have been a good theory, but it didn't really work out as it planned... So what's your reasoning?

 

[vegitalian]

I'm heading out shortly and will be back later tonight. Looking at the roles, it makes sense that ProHawk went down with 5 players. We have 2 nights free of wolf kills now, so let's make these lynches count. Here are a couple of my thoughts:
-ProHawk put us in a bad place... All of the seer-confirmed players have been killed
-We should look at who ProHawk bandwagoned on - they are likely non-wolf
-Dave628 could learn roles, but I never remember him talking about them - let's go back and review his old posts for clues
-All of jpulice's targets should be considered truthful in their roles (unless he voted for them afterwards) with the exception of Shinori, which he didn't have a chance to clear

 

[kirbyking]

For clarification JP asked DP to reveal FIRST for the obvious reason. Jpulice wanted to see DP's reveal, so he could look at him over night, which IMO puts an elephant sized target on Darthpika. I think he needs to be watched thoroughly and will possibly receive my vote after I have more time to look over his posts.

Prohawk obviously buddied Jpulice to prevent his lynch that day, so he could use his role next day. The way I see it he also buddied Jpulice, so JP would be holding heavy suspicions.

Those are my thoughts on the previous game day, however I am still waiting from a response from Azure Kite before I place a vote on anyone else.

 

[PikaJewel]

I accidentally voted

Jpulice yesterday when

I meant to vote

Prohawk, oops.

 

[vegitalian]

Ok, so I went through dave's posts. The only one that could potentially even have any relevance is his latest list of suspicious candidates: http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=2394392&postcount=1655

After that, he was between DarthPika and jpulice; neither of which he seemed sure of.

scorri, what do you think of xxumbreonxx? I find it very convenient that he tells us his role prevents any investigative or seer like role from affecting him.

My highly suspicious lists: (people listed below have some very questionable posts or acting very scummy)
StrongRhino
xxumbreonxx
Homeofmew
Pokemonrocks777

This list could quite honestly have zero relevance, since he never seemed to target one person or clear anyone. Unfortunately, at our current pace, we seem to be losing all of the players that post the most (guessing I'm next). Can everyone start putting some reads together and get some discussion going? Please???

 

[PikaJewel]

Ok, so I went through dave's posts. The only one that could potentially even have any relevance is his latest list of suspicious candidates: http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=2394392&postcount=1655

After that, he was between DarthPika and jpulice; neither of which he seemed sure of.



This list could quite honestly have zero relevance, since he never seemed to target one person or clear anyone. Unfortunately, at our current pace, we seem to be losing all of the players that post the most (guessing I'm next). Can everyone start putting some reads together and get some discussion going? Please???

Well I see

You actively scum

hunting, I'd say

more... but...

 

[vegitalian]

I would like to suggest that we clear pokemonfreak5 as non-scum. Despite a large bandwagon (which I admit, I was a part of), pokemonfreak5 was unwavering in his vote for prohawk. Some may see that as a chance to gain credibility, but when a player is playing as scummy as jpulice was, no one would hold it against a player to vote for them. Additionally, if it was pre-planned that ProHawk would explode, having pokemonfreak5 vote for jpulice would still give an additional kill, making logical sense that if pokemonfreak5 were a wolf, he would vote for jpulice.

He legitimately thought ProHawk a wolf, and I will certainly not be voting for him this game day.

Vote: AzureKite

Sub or not, I was getting some serious scum vibes off of StrongRhino. I don't envy your position, Azure Kite.

 

[DarthPika]

DarthPika, even though it wasn't the best request of Jpulice, why didn't you role reveal? Since Jpulice HAS flipped, and we know for sure that he's pro-town, his method seems to have been a good theory, but it didn't really work out as it planned... So what's your reasoning?

If I were to act like scum and then suddenly demand you provide a role reveal with the promise that I would do the same, would you accept it? No matter what your alignment, townie, indy, wolf, other, it's generally a bad idea to do that. I generally dislike people who go about forcing others to give out information about them selves with the promise of them doing the same for the other person. I had no reason to trust him, so it's pretty much as simple as that.

Be cautious of over analyzing a previous situation with new information. Hind sight with these flips is always 20/20, and you've got to think back to what the situation was BEFORE that information was confirmed.

I would like to hear both from HoM's replacement, and AzureKite. I still believe that at least one of them is a wolf. When I have time, I would like to observe Prohawks past interactions with StrongRhino (now AK).

This is not a permanent vote yet, but I would like to create some pressure for a response. I suggest not too many people vote for AK yet, as I don't want the day to end too early. We have much to discuss and analyze from the previous night.

Vote: AzureKite

I have a few things I want to look over, as well as an actual reply from AK before I solidify my vote.

 

[Benson]

Regardless of anything inactivity is going to be a bane for no lynches at this stage of the game, and those left are incredibly slow at posting. With the few exceptions of Vegitalian and to a lesser extent, DP, PikaJewel and myself leading the discussion.

I hate to do this at this stage of a game, but the inactives really need a prod. If ProHawk has killed the big discussion makers, then chases are that the inactives are being protected. However, I would also like to point out that there is likely at least one wolf amongst the actives.

Prods hold more weight at this stage of the game, they can snowball very quickly.
Vote: Schizo

I'm still inclined to say HoM was being pushed to activity by SS7, and that their night role is also of frequent, and powerful enough that they avoided Modkill by using it to stay active. The actual implications of that I still believe to be wolf related.

 

[pokemonfreak5]

I would like to suggest that we clear pokemonfreak5 as non-scum. Despite a large bandwagon (which I admit, I was a part of), pokemonfreak5 was unwavering in his vote for prohawk. Some may see that as a chance to gain credibility, but when a player is playing as scummy as jpulice was, no one would hold it against a player to vote for them. Additionally, if it was pre-planned that ProHawk would explode, having pokemonfreak5 vote for jpulice would still give an additional kill, making logical sense that if pokemonfreak5 were a wolf, he would vote for jpulice.

He legitimately thought ProHawk a wolf, and I will certainly not be voting for him this game day.

From a subjective point of view, it is unwise to 'clear' anyone as non-scum based on voting related evidence. However I'm glad people seem to see that I am town for now. Just in general don't take for granted clears like that.

I don't think AK needs any more prod votes, but they should definitely come online and post their thoughts soon. From what I remember of past games (going back a bit...) AK used to be quite an avid poster. Where are you now?

Can someone explain in detail why Thunderjolt and PP101 are cleared. I saw the update relatively early but I think I missed something. Also if the mod edited the update, changing available information, shouldn't this be a cause for some concern?

I agree with benson. We need everyone posting now. Numbers are starting to drop fast, particularly from last night. Like I've maintained, the game state will generally sort itself out in regards to inactives but we need to be developing reads on everyone from now. Maybe expand on the vote lists some players developed earlier. If I have time over the next few days I'm planning to have a look at all that myself.

JP's play from last game day is bugging me. I didn't see it as scum play, but I honestly believed he had some ulterior motive for wanting the votes on him. The fact that he turned out to have an investigating role really throws that out the window and I have no idea why he would have played like that.
Regardless, I believe DarthPika handled the situation in an appropriate manner and I still do not believe him to be scum.

One last point that concerns ProHawk. As he said, in a previous game he replaced into the scum team that I was a part of mid-game. In this game, we had access to day chat. Regardless of this, he started bussing me hard with little to no warning or communication with the rest of his team. This made me somewhat frustrated and I told him so in the thread. What's interesting though is that ProHawk saw this as the best play for the scum team and himself, and executed it regardless. This shows a personal playstyle of someone who would take a risky gambit if they thought it benefited themselves (and the team), regardless of any hesitations other may have.
This should be taken into account when analysing ProHawks actions. In my opinion he's just as likely to bandwagon (or even start a lynch against) scum than non-scum.

Got to run off to a class now, but hopefully I'll be on to post more soon.

Everyone else, get active! :thumb:

 

[vegitalian]

Point 1

OK - I have done a significant amount of work. I have gone over all of ProHawk, SS7, and DC725's posts to look at interactions with current players, and whether they were positive or negative. The point of the exercise was to look for outliers - based on PF5's take on ProHawk, perhaps ProHawk is the only one actively pursuing a wolf. Another scenario is that the wolves might have avoided having any interaction with some of the other wolves. Note that players like Vablakes, Waynegg, PMysterious, Human Destroyer, and G Landers all had several negative interactions with the wolves, so the following list shouldn't be used to choose the person with the most negatives, but should be used to notice patterns and outliers.

Also, note that like my first list that got me into a lot of trouble, it's my interpretation. If you don't like it, either defend yourself or go back and make your own interpretation.

DarthPika -10 (PH) n/a (SS7) 1 (DC)
KirbyKing n/a (PH) n/a (SS7) 1 (DC)
Shinori -1 (PH) n/a (SS7) n/a (DC)
Thunderjolt n/a (PH) n/a (SS7) n/a (DC)
Pokemonrocks777 -2 (PH) n/a (SS7) -1 (DC)
Pikajewel -1 (PH) -1 (SS7) 0 (DC)
Eclipse 0 (PH) 1 (SS7) -1 (DC)
Schizo/Homeofmew -2 (PH) 0 (SS7) -1 (DC)
Pokemonplayer101 1 (PH) n/a (SS7) 1 (DC)
vegitalian -7 (PH) 2 (SS7) -7 (DC)
pokemonfreak5 -3 (PH) -1 (SS7) 0 (DC)
tables/benson -1 (PH) -4 (SS7) n/a (DC)
strongrhino/azure kite -2 (PH) 0 (SS7) -3 (DC)
crimsonsky/xxumbreonxx -11 (PH) -2 (SS7) -6 (DC)

From this list, obvious outliers are:
DarthPika who got a LOT of negative attention from ProHawk (most late in the game), but absolutely none from the other wolves.
Thunderjolt had no interaction with the wolves. This is extremely odd, because he did post, and ProHawk didn't even have any quarrel with him.

Both myself and xxUmbreonxx fit into the Vablakes/Waynegg/G Landers/Human Destroyer/PMysterious mold. We were both attacked by more than one wolf on several occasions.

Onto Point 2!

There was talk of DC725 not being able to talk to other wolves. Now that we've had ProHawk's flip, I think we can disprove that theory, and from my list of "angry point finger" victims, clear:
Vegitalian
HomeofMew
Waynegg (killed)
xxumbreonxx

Point 3 - my reads:

I will use strength 1-5 to emphasize which reads are stronger, and which are weaker (5 being strongest)

DarthPika (4) - Leans Scum (ProHawk likely targeted him to avoid having to use his power right away as per his usual playstyle... Also, buddying with jpulice, who was confirmed town - if DP was lynched, ProHawk would gain credibility; also inconsistencies in the above chart)
KirbyKing (3) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (I believe him to be involved with the day kill)
Shinori (4) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (Was targeted by the posting restriction that got other townies - likely a wolf role since it limits daytime conversation)
Thunderjolt (3) - Leans Scum (No interaction with known wolves despite activity)
Pokemonrocks777 (1) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (Interaction trends seem fairly normal)
Pikajewel (2) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (Posting regularly, seems to be newbtown)
Eclipse (0) - Null Read
Schizo/Homeofmew (5) - Town/Non-Scum (DC725 target and interaction trend is fairly normal)
Pokemonplayer101 (1) - Leans Scum (Positive interactions from both DC and PH - no negative interactions)
pokemonfreak5 (3) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (Would not vote JP on an easy bandwagon lynch and opted to stay on ProHawk)
tables/benson (2) - Leans Town/Non-Scum (Normal interaction trending)
strongrhino/azure kite (0) - Null Read (Scummy playing, but a few negative interactions with both PH and DC)
crimsonsky/xxumbreonxx (5) - Town/Non-Scum (Ample evidence between interaction trends and DC725 targeting)

Who would I like to hear from? DP, Thunderjolt, PP101, Azure Kite, Eclipse. All 5 of you are on my chopping block today - I'm sure at least 1 or 2 of you are wolves, so give me something to work with if you're not (role info that won't compromise you... interactions with other players...), and my reads on you may change.

Remember, we have 2 nights with no wolf kill.

 

[DarthPika]

Vegitalian,

I had a few interactions with SS7. I was discussing with waynegg his likely being a wolf. I would have voted for him a few days ago, but he was day killed before I had a chance to make a post on the subject.

as for prohawk:

DarthPika (4) - Leans Scum (ProHawk likely targeted him to avoid having to use his power right away as per his usual playstyle... Also, buddying with jpulice, who was confirmed town - if DP was lynched, ProHawk would gain credibility; also inconsistencies in the above chart)

For the sake of argument and to prove that I am not one, let us assume that I am a wolf. The wolves are already down 2 members, and likely only have 5 or 6 at the most. The wolves would gain a rather large advantage from Prohawk using his role. Obviously, he would like to get his power off before any other wolves died, and hopefully take out the main threats to those wolves when he went. It makes no sense at all for him to place that much heat on another wolf and try to get him lynched. At that point, it's questionable if his power would even be worth using considering how few wolves would be left at that point.

To hit on the key points of that:

1) Prohawk had a suicide role, building credit would be rather worthless as he intends to take him self out of the game anyway.

2) Attacking another wolf so aggressively when the numbers are already down AND you wish to still be able to take advantage of your power is TERRIBLE play, and not something someone as experienced as him would do.

3) I see no reason why Prohawk would wish to delay using his power. He had already been taking some heat, and he knew who the seer was, who several confirmed townies were, and who was driving town discussion. It make no sense to me why he would push for the lynch of a wolf, when he had pretty much all the information on who to kill he could hope for at the current time. To lynch a wolf to save your self for only a few days later, and then to only kill your self (thus taking out yet another wolf and reducing their numbers to 3 or 2) just doesn't make sense.

Conclusion: Prohawk is a better player than what you described, and then what I outlined from that description. It only makes sense to consider that he was trying to get a townie lynched, and that I cannot be a wolf.

If there is anything else you would like me to address that I missed, please make sure to mention it in your next post.



It is also worth considering that Waynegg may not have been the target of a wolf kill, so we should not try and infer too much from his death.

 

[vegitalian]

Vegitalian,

I had a few interactions with SS7. I was discussing with waynegg his likely being a wolf. I would have voted for him a few days ago, but he was day killed before I had a chance to make a post on the subject.

as for prohawk:



For the sake of argument and to prove that I am not one, let us assume that I am a wolf. The wolves are already down 2 members, and likely only have 5 or 6 at the most. The wolves would gain a rather large advantage from Prohawk using his role. Obviously, he would like to get his power off before any other wolves died, and hopefully take out the main threats to those wolves when he went. It makes no sense at all for him to place that much heat on another wolf and try to get him lynched. At that point, it's questionable if his power would even be worth using considering how few wolves would be left at that point.

To hit on the key points of that:

1) Prohawk had a suicide role, building credit would be rather worthless as he intends to take him self out of the game anyway.

2) Attacking another wolf so aggressively when the numbers are already down AND you wish to still be able to take advantage of your power is TERRIBLE play, and not something someone as experienced as him would do.

3) I see no reason why Prohawk would wish to delay using his power. He had already been taking some heat, and he knew who the seer was, who several confirmed townies were, and who was driving town discussion. It make no sense to me why he would push for the lynch of a wolf, when he had pretty much all the information on who to kill he could hope for at the current time. To lynch a wolf to save your self for only a few days later, and then to only kill your self (thus taking out yet another wolf and reducing their numbers to 3 or 2) just doesn't make sense.

Conclusion: Prohawk is a better player than what you described, and then what I outlined from that description. It only makes sense to consider that he was trying to get a townie lynched, and that I cannot be a wolf.

If there is anything else you would like me to address that I missed, please make sure to mention it in your next post.



It is also worth considering that Waynegg may not have been the target of a wolf kill, so we should not try and infer too much from his death.

Thank you for being so quick to post, and to address my points. Your response wasn't scummy, and did use good logic. You are also a good player, from my understanding - most of your posts I've noticed have contained intelligent arguments.

I do disagree with you in that ProHawk could have wanted to gain credibility for the following reasons:
-His role could have been used as a finishing move
-Self-preservation: perhaps he wanted to continue playing?

Alternatively, he may have planned that he was going to go down that night, and in order to do YOU a favour (again, working off the scenario that you're a wolf), distanced himself from you to send you further into the game.

Your scenarios are entirely possible as well. I'm not going to discount you as a townie just yet, but if you are one, losing you could be detrimental to the town. Targeting a less frequent poster is a safer play all around. What I would like to see, though, are your reads given all of the information that has turned up (ProHawk flipping wolf, the wolf discussion not being part of his role, dave and JP's roles, 'hanging from the tower' being a townie effect, the possibility of the JP's posting restriction being a wolf role, etc.).

More importantly, I would like to know that when the time comes, you can be counted on to vote a reasonable and safe target (i.e. last night ProHawk turned out to be the better lynch, and we paid dearly because of it).

 

[DarthPika]

Again, I do not think it would be a viable way to gather credibility:

Perhaps it could have been saved as a finishing move. The problem with this though is that if the wolves continue to get quickly killed off, he may not have a chance to use it as a finishing move. Perhaps it would have built him some credit, but his play was also quite scummy. I do not think he would have lasted much longer, even if he had been successful in lynching me if under that scenario I was a wolf.

For the second point of self preservation, I do not believe prohawk to be that type of player. He's too smart to do something selfish that would hurt the chances of the wolves win. If the wolves felt it was in their best interest for him to go bang last night/in the near future, I'm quite certain that he was ready to do so and aware of that the previous day.

Again, if he was trying to distance him self, that's a rather risky way to do it. He was pushing VERY hard for my lynch. In all honesty, I think that if JP had been taking the game seriously and not been screwing around, I would have been lynched. I'm not expecting you to write me off as a townie, and I appreciate your caution. I never like to write someone off as anything unless there is absolute proof.

We can argue about this more if you wish, but I feel it's in our best interest to focus our efforts elsewhere, and attempt to get some other people talking who we badly need to hear from.

As for reads, it will take me some time before I will have those. I have one week left of midterms, and it's going to be a busy one. (yes, my exams are staggered so I always have them... lucky me )

If you look at my voting history, I'm sure you'll notice by now that I'm a careful voter, when it comes to my final voting decision. I always go with the vote that I feel is in the best interest of the town. As I said the previous game day, I would have been willing to switch the vote to prohawk, but I feared that if we did not we would not get a lynch. As you saw, we did not even manage to lynch JP so it's highly doubtful we would have been able to swing the vote.

I have a few people in mind for a potential lynch, but I would like to wait until I have a reply from the new players before doing much more.

 

[Azure Kite]

Sub or not, I was getting some serious scum vibes off of StrongRhino. I don't envy your position, Azure Kite.

Nor do I. Question though; were these readings from anything other than inactivity/apathy? I've long been frustrated with people just labeling such behavior as scum.

I don't think AK needs any more prod votes, but they should definitely come online and post their thoughts soon. From what I remember of past games (going back a bit...) AK used to be quite an avid poster. Where are you now?

College, man. College.

The one thing I'll say about the technical conflicts that went down is that I was asked to play since replacements were needed. I'm actually inactive in the 'gym now due to time and interests, but I'm always happy to fill in as a replacement, as I am passionate about the game. That said, I'm happy to move on with the game.

I can't say that I'm going to have the time to look back over ALL that has happened since the game's beginning. All I've really gathered about my predecessor's gameplay is that he was inactive. Anything else I should know about SR, or the game in general?

What would people like to hear from me about at this point? Can't say I have a lot to contribute just yet, seeing as I JUST joined the game. As I have time, I'll try to formulate some contributions on jpulice and Prohawk, since their behavior seems to be some of our greatest weaponry at this point.

 

[PikaJewel]

Sorry I haven't

posted yesterday, I

have been enjoying

Ev training Keldeo

 

[vegitalian]

The concern with StrongRhino is actually that he was appearing out of nowhere on bandwagons without any justification. I would like you to give something up about your role, since StrongRhino is not here to defend his scummy plays, and your defending them isn't going to get us there.

 

[xxumbreonxx]

wow... I am so confused right now....

So I was looking back at Prohawks post, and I found this:

Well guys, there is a silver-lining in all of this, despite getting a no-lynch. Someone gave me a gun last-night, but I couldn't use it the same day I got it. Anyway, the silver-lining is that I can kill someone for us tonight and it will be just like getting a lynch, except I get to choose.

After everything that has gone down... Vegi, I think you claiming that you can grab whichever role you want to is a lie. I mean, look at how you had to fake it in the thread.....

"SMP88 give me your powers" thing is kinda silly really.

Therefore, I am going to shoot you tonight. If you are lying just to try and have an alabi as to why the wolves haven't killed you, well you will die as the scum you are. If you are telling the truth, you should be protected right? So if you survive past tonight you are telling the truth. It's a win-win bud. See you on the flip-side!

A couple things:

1) He obviously had no gun I think we can all agree on that xD
2) I'm just curious to why as he said that he would kill you Vegi, and here you are, still alive even when he could have blew up you and 4 other people....

 

[Pikamaster]

VOTE COUNT:
14 Remaining
7 to lynch


Azure Kite- 4 (Kirbyking, Pokemonplayer101, Vegitalian, DarthPika)

Schizo- 1 (Benson)



Also, Schizo caught me after class today and informed me that he is without internet for the moment and asked me to relay the message.

 

[Benson]

...

1) He obviously had no gun I think we can all agree on that xD
2) I'm just curious to why as he said that he would kill you Vegi, and here you are, still alive even when he could have blew up you and 4 other people....

This is where this game gets hard. It could be incriminating Vegi, but then it could be WIFOM so that we don't lynch Vegi. :/

Leaving my vote on Schizo till his internet returns, I see no need to change it at the moment, though Azure Kite is recommended to go with the consensus at the moment, because my vote will be used to L-3/2/1 if the extra prod is required. I will point out this isn't me claiming I will bandwagon, just that Strong Rhino made an interesting spectacle of himself and that once we resolve it we will either have a wolf or will be one person closer to determining the wolves. This can be said of all people but the situation as it is provides Azure Kite as the most likely to provide a key link. Schizo by related condition is second on that list.