Johnny -
I ran the numbers for Blaze the Younger using the algorithm developed to track ratings vs K value vs opponent's rating.
Two early losses in swiss and a loss in top cut and it's over........if your goal is to get to Worlds.
Rank Name ____Rating Age Div
1 Andrew K. ___2099.16 JR MO US
2 Michael D. ___2066.92 JR NJ US
3 John K. ______2055.59 MA TX US
4 Eric C. ______2050.39 MA FL US
5 Grafton R. ___2049.47 JR FL US
6 Breton B. ____2047.31 SR CO US
7 bszdtfbb _____2046.14 JR GA US
8 David R. _____2045.53 JR MI US
9 Tad M. _______2036.84 JR NC US
10 Dan R. ______2034.30 SR MI US
11 Jason P _____2023.28 JR TX US
12 Thomas A. ___2020.78 JR MA US
13 Benjamin S ___2020.67 SR PA US
14 Nick C. _____2018.51 SR NY US
15 Daniel R. ____2014.49 SR WA US
16 Drew F. ______2002.81 JR IN US
Here is the current list of 2k plus players in NA. 9 JR, 5 SR, 2 MA
- For the JR's, the top 6 JRs would have a High prob to go to worlds if they sit.
- For the SR's, All would have a High probability to go to worlds if they sit.
- For the MA's, no brainer. Sit.
Once again, the premise of this discussion is that the end goal is Worlds.
If world's is it, then one cannot bluff the math.
You and others know my POV on this and I do not want to go off thread.
v/r,
Steve