Sitting out Nats a serious discussion
- Thread starter JohnnyBlaze
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people are talking about sitting out nats like alot of players have a choice I would say only the top 3-5 in the masters have that ablitiy any lower and you risk getting bumbed. And all this talk about honor, I believe in honor and SOTG more than a lot of players but it just plain stupid to throw away a guareted invite.
Johnny -
I ran the numbers for Blaze the Younger using the algorithm developed to track ratings vs K value vs opponent's rating.
Two early losses in swiss and a loss in top cut and it's over........if your goal is to get to Worlds.
Rank Name ____Rating Age Div
1 Andrew K. ___2099.16 JR MO US
2 Michael D. ___2066.92 JR NJ US
3 John K. ______2055.59 MA TX US
4 Eric C. ______2050.39 MA FL US
5 Grafton R. ___2049.47 JR FL US
6 Breton B. ____2047.31 SR CO US
7 bszdtfbb _____2046.14 JR GA US
8 David R. _____2045.53 JR MI US
9 Tad M. _______2036.84 JR NC US
10 Dan R. ______2034.30 SR MI US
11 Jason P _____2023.28 JR TX US
12 Thomas A. ___2020.78 JR MA US
13 Benjamin S ___2020.67 SR PA US
14 Nick C. _____2018.51 SR NY US
15 Daniel R. ____2014.49 SR WA US
16 Drew F. ______2002.81 JR IN US
Here is the current list of 2k plus players in NA. 9 JR, 5 SR, 2 MA
Once again, the premise of this discussion is that the end goal is Worlds.
If world's is it, then one cannot bluff the math.
You and others know my POV on this and I do not want to go off thread.
v/r,
Steve
I ran the numbers for Blaze the Younger using the algorithm developed to track ratings vs K value vs opponent's rating.
Two early losses in swiss and a loss in top cut and it's over........if your goal is to get to Worlds.
Rank Name ____Rating Age Div
1 Andrew K. ___2099.16 JR MO US
2 Michael D. ___2066.92 JR NJ US
3 John K. ______2055.59 MA TX US
4 Eric C. ______2050.39 MA FL US
5 Grafton R. ___2049.47 JR FL US
6 Breton B. ____2047.31 SR CO US
7 bszdtfbb _____2046.14 JR GA US
8 David R. _____2045.53 JR MI US
9 Tad M. _______2036.84 JR NC US
10 Dan R. ______2034.30 SR MI US
11 Jason P _____2023.28 JR TX US
12 Thomas A. ___2020.78 JR MA US
13 Benjamin S ___2020.67 SR PA US
14 Nick C. _____2018.51 SR NY US
15 Daniel R. ____2014.49 SR WA US
16 Drew F. ______2002.81 JR IN US
Here is the current list of 2k plus players in NA. 9 JR, 5 SR, 2 MA
- For the JR's, the top 6 JRs would have a High prob to go to worlds if they sit.
- For the SR's, All would have a High probability to go to worlds if they sit.
- For the MA's, no brainer. Sit.
Once again, the premise of this discussion is that the end goal is Worlds.
If world's is it, then one cannot bluff the math.
You and others know my POV on this and I do not want to go off thread.
v/r,
Steve
ZAKtheGeek
New Member
Think of all the problems that would be solved if people stopped obsessing over Worlds and instead aimed to have a good time at Nats. Problems that don't even exist yet.
Consider this hypothetical situation...
The Patriots are 15-0. A win in the final game would equal the only other perfect season in the NFL.
Instead of sitting Brady (as many teams sit their starting QBs once they have their play positions locked), they decide to play for number 16.
Not only do they not win their 16th game, but Tom Brady gets hurt in the process.
As a result, they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs to the Colts who go on to win the Super Bowl.
There is no honor for the Patriots. It was a meaningless game to them. And they shot themselves in the foot.
While Nationals is far from meaningless, it is of far less importance than Worlds.
But REMEMBER THIS!
Some from this years Nationals will be a "cautionary tale." Next year, as we're having this same discussion, someone will say "I want to play at Nationals, but I'm afraid of losing my ranking. Remember what happened to <INSERT YOUR NAME HERE>."
Think about it. This could be you.
The Patriots are 15-0. A win in the final game would equal the only other perfect season in the NFL.
Instead of sitting Brady (as many teams sit their starting QBs once they have their play positions locked), they decide to play for number 16.
Not only do they not win their 16th game, but Tom Brady gets hurt in the process.
As a result, they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs to the Colts who go on to win the Super Bowl.
There is no honor for the Patriots. It was a meaningless game to them. And they shot themselves in the foot.
While Nationals is far from meaningless, it is of far less importance than Worlds.
But REMEMBER THIS!
Some from this years Nationals will be a "cautionary tale." Next year, as we're having this same discussion, someone will say "I want to play at Nationals, but I'm afraid of losing my ranking. Remember what happened to <INSERT YOUR NAME HERE>."
Think about it. This could be you.
Anybody up there should feel good about their chances at Nationals. The question shouldn't be "should I sit out Nats?", but rather, what deck to play? If you're up there, even in Masters, you should be playing in Nationals. Besides, anybody that is on the bubble can't afford to sit out, and if you're afraid of playing in Nationals because you might lose, what does that say about your Worlds chances? Ok, you get a trip to Worlds, to Hawaii, and then you bomb. Also, anybody who won a States or Regional should not even be considering sitting out Nats, I don't care who you are. You have FREE MONEY/TRIP to the biggest event of the year in the U.S. Why in the WORLD would you sit out and not play in it? There is $5,000 for 1st prize at Nationals, do people seem to forget how hard it is to money at Worlds? You play in Nationals, under any circumstance.
NoPoke
Active Member
Playing at UK nats probably cost Nicholas a ratings invite. But there was no way of knowing this before nationals. Its easy to look back with hindsight and say remember what happened to <name>. True the position in the USA is much clearer than that within europe but its not crystal clear as to what to do in the USA.
Scizor has it right I think, but for someone its going to be a very unfortunate decision to play at nationals.
Scizor has it right I think, but for someone its going to be a very unfortunate decision to play at nationals.
What I mean is there's nothing to stop you running 4 Trans, 4 Mentor, 4 Lanette, 4 Poke Ball, 4 Great Ball, 4 Master Ball, 4 Dual Ball, 4 PokeNav, 4 Pokedex, 4 Celio etc, of course no one would go anywhere near those extreme lengths but there are always ways to increase consistency in all areas.
Pidgeotto Trainer
New Member
Could you explain a little more how you arrived at those assumptions?
I had this point of view as well, until I realized nationals will have 400+ players, and worlds will have 64.
Cyrus
Iron Chef - Master Emeritus
I see Chad and Ross' points of view clearly, 'cause I've had both of those opinions before...
Ross thinks that it is easier to "money" at worlds this year, and rightfully so: you can't deny the fact that if you place in the top 25% of THAT event, you'll do better than everyone but the top four at US Nationals.
But...when asking yourself whether or not to sit out nationals, factor in what Chad is saying here...why on EARTH would you want to sit out on a tournament with prizes almost as nice as worlds itself? There is plenty of good $, and plenty of good fun to be found actually "playing" Pokemon. If it's no sweat off of your back to not play, like in Ross' case, then you can make the choice to not play, but if it's also no sweat to play, then just DO IT!
Ross thinks that it is easier to "money" at worlds this year, and rightfully so: you can't deny the fact that if you place in the top 25% of THAT event, you'll do better than everyone but the top four at US Nationals.
But...when asking yourself whether or not to sit out nationals, factor in what Chad is saying here...why on EARTH would you want to sit out on a tournament with prizes almost as nice as worlds itself? There is plenty of good $, and plenty of good fun to be found actually "playing" Pokemon. If it's no sweat off of your back to not play, like in Ross' case, then you can make the choice to not play, but if it's also no sweat to play, then just DO IT!
ixidor89
New Member
Hawaii > Ohio
Ask any person from Ohio. They'll agree.
Of couse, you'd better be darn sure that you'll get a worlds invite.
Dark Weedle
New Member
this year we probably wont be having this dicusion because there will probably be invites given at regionals or some such event
GinoLombardi21
New Member
I must say the LCQ=Easier then Nationals TOP 4 and less in attendance wise. I understand why that is making alot of people angry seeing nationals will have 2/3x people as the lcq will have. Anyway on oppinions of not playing in nationals and getting a worlds invite threw rating if your over like 2000 points. It's not a bad thing if you think about it. Its playing it smart and safe.
Ok at nationals you can tank at any time 5-4 record, 6-3 Record, or even a 7-2 record then making the cut and then losing. So by not taking that chance and keeping your rating you have very little to lose and so much to gain. So if you look at sitting on your rating vs. playing in nationals. You have to view it by both sides.
Im a 1955 rating. So I obviously cant sit on my rating. I like playing in big competetive events so I probably wouldnt ever sit on my rating even if I had the option. Some people see it different. Worlds does mean alot to me and pretty much everyone else. Playing in the world championships! Representing your country! Competeting with the best! Its a pretty good feeling.
Ok at nationals you can tank at any time 5-4 record, 6-3 Record, or even a 7-2 record then making the cut and then losing. So by not taking that chance and keeping your rating you have very little to lose and so much to gain. So if you look at sitting on your rating vs. playing in nationals. You have to view it by both sides.
Im a 1955 rating. So I obviously cant sit on my rating. I like playing in big competetive events so I probably wouldnt ever sit on my rating even if I had the option. Some people see it different. Worlds does mean alot to me and pretty much everyone else. Playing in the world championships! Representing your country! Competeting with the best! Its a pretty good feeling.
This is a no brainer for me if I'm Eric Craig or John Kettler.
You PLAY nationals. Even if you go 6-3 you still keep your trip IMO. At a 48k your losses hit you hard, but your wins still net you some points.
Hypotheticialy here, an 1800 player manages to go 9-0 in nats swiss - avoiding a few questionable matchups.Anyone have any idea what his points are if he drops at 9-0 or if he goes 9-1(losing first round in top cut).
Personally I dont think I'd EVER drop at 9-0 but I wouldn't be suprised to see a few people drop to protect ratings.
-Steve
You PLAY nationals. Even if you go 6-3 you still keep your trip IMO. At a 48k your losses hit you hard, but your wins still net you some points.
Hypotheticialy here, an 1800 player manages to go 9-0 in nats swiss - avoiding a few questionable matchups.Anyone have any idea what his points are if he drops at 9-0 or if he goes 9-1(losing first round in top cut).
Personally I dont think I'd EVER drop at 9-0 but I wouldn't be suprised to see a few people drop to protect ratings.
-Steve
NoPoke
Active Member
I doubt that anyone will drop at 9-0. Mostly because I think 9-0 will be in the top cut so you have to pick up a loss for the next round if you drop and may as well play on.
Now who might drop at say 6-0? If you are at the top of the ratings then you can probably afford to play that extra round and drop after the first loss. If you are at the bottom of the following pack then 6-0 may not be enough anyway. So its only those in the middle of the pack who are likely to take the gambol that the 6-0 boost will put them far enough ahead that they can't be overtaken.
Now what of an early loss? well unless you are right at the top of the ratings and are feeling spooked you have to play on to mitigate the negative effect of an early loss.
There aren't probably more than a handful of players who can go into Nationals with a "I'll get to X-Y and then drop strategy."
Anyone who really wants to understand what is happening at nationals is going to be making a note of who their opponents are and what there rating was at the start of nationals. I bet that a few will be asking their opponents who they played last round and if they won or lost. I'll bet that someone on the PokeGym will publish a 'stake' table vs ratings_difference for a K=44 event. Someone is bound to take a copy of the ranking table prior to Nationals with them to Ohio. It wouldn't surprise me if the posted standings reports started to pick up annotations of estimated rating after each round. Some enterprising sole may be seen with a laptop entering the results form the TOP32 rated players...
There is no doubt in my mind that for some this is a serious business. But lets not lose sight of the fact that for the majority of attendees nationals is the BIG SHOW for the year. The WOW event in the playing calendar. I hope everyone can remember that it is supposed to be fun too.
Now who might drop at say 6-0? If you are at the top of the ratings then you can probably afford to play that extra round and drop after the first loss. If you are at the bottom of the following pack then 6-0 may not be enough anyway. So its only those in the middle of the pack who are likely to take the gambol that the 6-0 boost will put them far enough ahead that they can't be overtaken.
Now what of an early loss? well unless you are right at the top of the ratings and are feeling spooked you have to play on to mitigate the negative effect of an early loss.
There aren't probably more than a handful of players who can go into Nationals with a "I'll get to X-Y and then drop strategy."
Anyone who really wants to understand what is happening at nationals is going to be making a note of who their opponents are and what there rating was at the start of nationals. I bet that a few will be asking their opponents who they played last round and if they won or lost. I'll bet that someone on the PokeGym will publish a 'stake' table vs ratings_difference for a K=44 event. Someone is bound to take a copy of the ranking table prior to Nationals with them to Ohio. It wouldn't surprise me if the posted standings reports started to pick up annotations of estimated rating after each round. Some enterprising sole may be seen with a laptop entering the results form the TOP32 rated players...
There is no doubt in my mind that for some this is a serious business. But lets not lose sight of the fact that for the majority of attendees nationals is the BIG SHOW for the year. The WOW event in the playing calendar. I hope everyone can remember that it is supposed to be fun too.
I think that Nats is as much about practice for the Worlds as anything else. With all due respect, if you sit out Nats, how likely are you to do well at worlds?
I think that everyone wants a sure thing (in this case a trip to Hawaii) but with K-values this high, who knows what the top cut will look like. You play this game well because you like it. Go have fun!
Good luck to all! See you at Nats!
Randy
Safe Harbor Statement: This is not a definitive statement of risk. Playing in the Nationals may cause your ratings slide.
I think that everyone wants a sure thing (in this case a trip to Hawaii) but with K-values this high, who knows what the top cut will look like. You play this game well because you like it. Go have fun!
Good luck to all! See you at Nats!
Randy
Safe Harbor Statement: This is not a definitive statement of risk. Playing in the Nationals may cause your ratings slide.
I really wish it wasn't even an option for people to consider sitting out just because they had more of an opportunity than someone like me to go to events. I know I'd personally be pretty upset if I do well at Nats (like I have at EVERY event this year) and don't get an invite over someone who stayed in their area ALL year and beat up on everyone but the best plyaers in the U.S. How is that fair? Seriously, put yourself in my position, and then think about it.
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